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Armikrog - The Neverhood developers making a new game
No, it won’t.
My guess is they’ll reach 945K.
That was an amazingly good guess 
2 hours to go. $5000 to the Wii-U stretch goal. Iwata himself should just put the 5000 and be done with it 
About to hit 960,000….still 45 min to go
AWESOME!!!
Now Accepting Paypal!
After Hours Goal $1,000,000
Now all bases covered. It’ll be really exciting a year from now.
Kudos to all that contributed.
That was an amazingly good guess
I hadn’t taken the Wii-U stretch goal into account when I made that guess, otherwise I’d have said 965K. And that would STILL have been 10K lower than it finally made. 
All those “it’s not going to make it” panickers from previous weeks should really learn the power of the final Kickstarter spurts…
60% with a week to go? 70% just before the final spurt? Final result: 105-110%. Every. Single. Time.
Those that were late to the party, or that were specifically waiting for PayPal, will push this over 1 mil in no time.
Bottom line: we win! 
The truth can’t hurt you, it’s just like the dark: it scares you witless but in time you see things clear and stark. - Elvis Costello
Maybe this time I can be strong, but since I know who I am, I’m probably wrong. Maybe this time I can go far, but thinking about where I’ve been ain’t helping me start. - Michael Kiwanuka
All those “it’s not going to make it” panickers from previous weeks should really learn the power of the final Kickstarter spurts…
60% with a week to go? 70% just before the final spurt? Final result: 105-110%. Every. Single. Time.
Any science behind this, you definitely were the only optimistic one, but i still don’t
get the actual sudden surge KS gets in the last few days, do people hold back or gather
other people like crazy…..whats the actual reason???
Or i just assume , it just happens
I think it’s a safe enough bet that there’s shenanigans involved in some cases.
Any science behind this, you definitely were the only optimistic one, but i still don’t get the actual sudden surge KS gets in the last few days, do people hold back or gather other people like crazy…..whats the actual reason???
Both things you mentioned are factors. Don’t know the science behind the U-shaped Kickstarter curve but I’d chalk it up to a few things:
1. People like a winner and are more likely to back something that has momentum and looks like it can achieve its goal. It helps people feel like their vote will “matter” when the numbers are climbing.
2. Most of the press coverage and buzz around a game happens in the first few days and the last few days of its campaign. Armikrog, for example, timed its coverage with some international press for its last few days rather than during the middle doldrums, precisely so that it could find readers who may not have heard about Armikrog yet at a time when they’re more likely to back (see #1), and thereby finish the campaign strong.
3. A game with a strong launch will have enough of a backer base to find more backers in its final days. I think this is probably most of where the so-called 30% rule comes from.
4. Some people hesitate until the last minute to decide if they’re going to pledge. This is why Kickstarter has a Remind function, which also contributes to the extra pledges near the end.
The trick, then, to marketing Kickstarters seems to be to line up press in advance if possible so you can start with a really strong launch, and then find a way to maintain as much momentum as possible through the inevitable middle doldrums. This can be done through frequent updates, media coverage, or even mini-campaigns within your campaign like the matching pledge thing that Tex Murphy did, which was genius.
(Timovieman or others may have more data or knowledge, and if so, hopefully will share.)
I think it’s a safe enough bet that there’s shenanigans involved in some cases.
If you call shenanigans good Marketing......then I agree with you.
I think it’s a safe enough bet that there’s shenanigans involved in some cases.
If they amass over 50% of the budget (like AR-K did), then yes, there’s likely shenanigans involved.
But if they amass about a third of the required budget in the last two days, then it’s perfectly normal. A lot of Kickstarters manage that.
See Caliburn’s post a bit higher.
The truth can’t hurt you, it’s just like the dark: it scares you witless but in time you see things clear and stark. - Elvis Costello
Maybe this time I can be strong, but since I know who I am, I’m probably wrong. Maybe this time I can go far, but thinking about where I’ve been ain’t helping me start. - Michael Kiwanuka
and
idiotsmisinformed backers thinking that they lose their money if the project doesn’t get funded…
Do those people actually still exist?
I mean kickstarter isn’t exactly new anymore, i would think that by now everybody using kickstarter would understand how it works, but perhaps i’m just being naive.
You have to play the game, to find out why you are playing the game! - eXistenZ
(Timovieman or others may have more data or knowledge, and if so, hopefully will share.)
Nah, I’m just going on observations.
Do those people actually still exist?
I mean kickstarter isn’t exactly new anymore, i would think that by now everybody using kickstarter would understand how it works, but perhaps i’m just being naive.
Never underestimate the stupidity of idiots?
The truth can’t hurt you, it’s just like the dark: it scares you witless but in time you see things clear and stark. - Elvis Costello
Maybe this time I can be strong, but since I know who I am, I’m probably wrong. Maybe this time I can go far, but thinking about where I’ve been ain’t helping me start. - Michael Kiwanuka
All those “it’s not going to make it” panickers from previous weeks should really learn the power of the final Kickstarter spurts…
60% with a week to go? 70% just before the final spurt? Final result: 105-110%. Every. Single. Time.
Any science behind this, you definitely were the only optimistic one, but i still don’t
get the actual sudden surge KS gets in the last few days, do people hold back or gather
other people like crazy…..whats the actual reason???Or i just assume , it just happens
One thing I can think of is that Amazon/Kickstarter only takes the money from pledgers when the project comes to an end and is successful.
Most people are dreadful at budgeting how much money they will have available in 20-30 days time so wait until the last minute to pledge knowing that the money will come off that day.
An adventure game is nothing more than a good story set with engaging puzzles that fit seamlessly in with the story and the characters, and looks and sounds beautiful.
Roberta Williams
If they amass over 50% of the budget (like AR-K did), then yes, there’s likely shenanigans involved.
In the case of AR-K, 32% (287) of the backers came in on the last 3-days and raise 45% ($45,817) of the pledges….......
so I would like to be enlightened on what constitutes shenanigans.
Great, now can we go back to talking about how now that Armikrog is funded, Doug TenNapel will now have the resources to lead his Christian Army in an assault against gay marriage? It seems to be less controversial.
Bt
What is it with this thread getting derailed?
The page-and-a-half discussion that got more and more focused on ‘A Vampyre Story: Year One’ has now been moved to its proper thread.
The truth can’t hurt you, it’s just like the dark: it scares you witless but in time you see things clear and stark. - Elvis Costello
Maybe this time I can be strong, but since I know who I am, I’m probably wrong. Maybe this time I can go far, but thinking about where I’ve been ain’t helping me start. - Michael Kiwanuka
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