[TimovieMan]

Who do you think will win at the Oscars next week? Who do you think should win?


The nominees are:

Best Picture:
- The Artist
- The Descendants
- Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
- The Help
- Hugo
- Midnight in Paris
- Moneyball
- The Tree of Life
- War Horse

Best Director:
- Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
- Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
- Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
- Alexander Payne - The Descendants
- Martin Scorsese - Hugo

Best Actor:
- Demian Bichir - A Better Life
- George Clooney - The Descendants
- Jean Dujardin - The Artist
- Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- Brad Pitt - Moneyball

Best Actress:
- Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
- Viola Davis - The Help
- Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
- Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Best Supporting Actor:
- Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
- Jonah Hill - Moneyball
- Nick Nolte - Warrior
- Christopher Plummer - Beginners
- Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Best Supporting Actress:
- Berenice Bejo - The Artist
- Jessica Chastain - The Help
- Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
- Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
- Octavia Spencer - The Help

Best Animated Feature Film:
- A Cat in Paris
- Chico & Rita
- Kung Fu Panda 2
- Puss in Boots
- Rango

Best Foreign Film:
- Bullhead (Belgium)
- Footnote (Israel)
- In Darkness (Poland)
- Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
- A Separation (Iran)

Best Writing - Original Screenplay:
- The Artist - Michel Hazanavicius
- Bridesmaids - Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumolo
- Margin Call - J.C. Chandor
- Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen
- A Separation - Asghar Farhadi

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay:
- The Descendants - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
- Hugo - John Logan
- The Ides of March - George Clooney, Grant Heslov & Beau Willimon
- Moneyball - Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan

Best Original Song:
- 'Man or Muppet' - The Muppets
- 'Real in Rio' - Rio

Best Original Score:
- The Adventures of Tintin - John Williams
- The Artist - Ludovic Bource
- Hugo - Howard Shore
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - Alberto Iglesias
- War Horse - John Williams

Best Documentary - Feature:
- Hell and Back Again
- If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
- Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
- Pina
- Undefeated

Best Documentary - Short Subject:
- The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
- God Is the Bigger Elvis
- Incident in New Baghdad
- Saving Face
- The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Best Live Action Short Film:
- Pentecost
- Raju
- The Shore
- Time Freak
- Tuba Atlantic

Best Animated Short Film:
- Dimanche
- The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
- La Luna
- A Morning Stroll
- Wild Life

Best Cinematography:
- The Artist
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Hugo
- The Tree of Life
- War Horse

Best Film Editing:
- The Artist
- The Descendants
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Hugo
- Moneyball

Best Art Direction:
- The Artist
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
- Hugo
- Midnight in Paris
- War Horse

Best Costume Design:
- Anonymous
- The Artist
- Hugo
- Jane Eyre
- W.E.

Best Makeup:
- Albert Nobbs
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
- The Iron Lady

Best Sound Editing:
- Drive
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Hugo
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon
- War Horse

Best Sound Mixing:
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
- Hugo
- Moneyball
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon
- War Horse

Best Visual Effects:
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
- Hugo
- Real Steel
- Rise of the Planet of the Apes
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon

[TimovieMan]

What I think:

Best Picture:
Will win: The Descendants
Could win: The Artist
While The Artist is one of the frontrunners for every category it's nominated in, I have a feeling the Academy won't grant a silent black-and-white movie the top honour(s). That said, it's still a valid candidate. But The Descendants is a 'safer' choice for the Academy, imo.
I don't have a clue what Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and War Horse are doing here, though. Replace them with Drive and Shame and add Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 for a round 10 nominees and the category will be perfect.

Best Director:
Will win: Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Could win: Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Hugo was right up Scorsese's alley, allowing him to portray his incredible love for the film medium while showcasing his directing skills. While it may not be the best movie, I think he's the most likely candidate for Best Director. That's if the Academy doesn't surprise me and lets The Artist have a clean sweep...

Best Actor:
Will win: George Clooney for The Descendants
Could win: Brad Pitt for Moneyball
Following the reasoning "The Artist is a silent picture so we've only seen part of Dujardin's performance", I'm taking him off the potential winners' list. He's still the dark horse, though. Oldman and Bichir don't stand a chance against the other three. I feel the Academy overlooked Michael Fassbender for Shame.

Best Actress:
Will win: Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady
Could win: Viola Davis for The Help
The second I heard they were making a movie about Margaret Thatcher starring Meryl Streep, I said "Streep gets the Oscar". From what I've seen, the only thing that could challenge her is an overly "black" vote by the Academy. But I doubt that, since we already got that in 2002 (with Halle Berry, Denzel Washington and Sidney Poitier getting one - of which Denzels was 10 years too late and in the wrong category *), and because I think Octavia Spencer will win Best Supporting Actress and they're giving James Earl Jones an Honorary Oscar.

* Ethan Hawke was the lead, Denzel Washington was supporting in Training Day. Their Oscar nominations were the other way around, though.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Could win: Max Von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
I think this one is pretty much in the bag for Plummer.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Octavia Spencer for The Help
Could win: Berenice Bejo for The Artist
Although I'm convinced they'll give it to Octavia Spencer, I can't rule out the possibility of The Artist getting all the honours. Jessica Chastain is nominated here for the wrong movie, I'd preferred a nod for The Tree of Life...

Best Animated Feature Film:
Will win: Rango
Could win: Chico & Rita
The obvious winner was Adventures of Tintin, but somehow it didn't even get nominated (yet Kung Fu Panda 2 did? ). Without Tintin to compete, I reckon Rango is the most likely candidate. Either that or they'll vote alternatively and then Chico & Rita wins.

Best Foreign Film:
Will win: A Separation (Iran)
Could win: no-one else.
Seriously, I'll eat my hat (without salt!) if A Separation doesn't win...

Best Writing - Original Screenplay:
Will win: The Artist - Michel Hazanavicius
Could win: Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen
Difficult to decide which of the two it'll be. Because this isn't really one of the top categories, I suspect it could go to The Artist. It'll be close, though. Woody Allen's a top contender as well...

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: The Descendants - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
Could win: Moneyball - Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin
Since I think The Descendants will win Best Picture, it's hard to see how they'd do that and NOT win this category.

Best Original Song:
Will win: 'Man or Muppet' - The Muppets
Could win: Gee, plenty of options here...
The Muppets FTW! Especially with a song title that sounds suspiciously close to 'Mahna Mahna'...
They really ought to nominate more songs, though. Two is just ridiculous. It was even worse three years ago, with two songs from Slumdog Millionair nominated and both Clint Eastwood & Jamie Cullum for Gran Torino and Bruce Springsteen for The Wrestler snubbed...

Best Original Score:
Will win: The Artist - Ludovic Bource
Could win: it'll be hard to beat The Artist in this category. The music is EXTRA important in a silent movie...


And now the "difficult to fill out on ballot" crapshoot categories:

Best Documentary - Feature:
Will win: Pina
Could win: Hell and Back Again

Best Documentary - Short Subject:
Will win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Could win: Saving Face

Best Live Action Short Film:
Will win: Tuba Atlantic
Could win: Raju

Best Animated Short Film:
Will win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Could win: La Luna


And the fight between Hugo and The Artist for the artistic awards:

Best Cinematography:
Will win: The Artist
Could win: The Tree of Life
And I wouldn't mind seeing Hugo win as well.

Best Film Editing:
Will win: Hugo
Could win: The Artist

Best Art Direction:
Will win: The Artist
Could win: Hugo

Best Costume Design:
Will win: The Artist
Could win: Hugo

Best Makeup:
Will win: The Iron Lady
Could win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Because they made Meryl Streep look so much like Margaret Thatcher that, added to her performance, she could confuse a lot of people giving an in-character speech on TV...

Best Sound Editing:
Will win: Hugo
Could win: War Horse

Best Sound Mixing:
Will win: Hugo
Could win: War Horse

Best Visual Effects:
Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Could win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Rise of the Planet of the Apes is the most likely candidate because not once during that entire film did I think "that's an effect" even though I knew they were all visual effects. Andy Serkis for mo-cap king!

[TiAgUh]

The Tree of Life won't defo win an award unless it's for the best ego-fappage. I'm seeing The Artist winning since it's simply a cliché collage done in a way for the audiences to think that they've just watched something deep. It's Avatar in a nutshell = formulaic always wins. This, of course, if the others aren't more The Artist than The Artist, which I wouldn't know cause they don't interest me in the least.

And of course A Separation will win; it's really hard for a social (family) drama not to win that award . Even when something a bit different wins, everyone cries and goes apeshit later on (In a Better World vs Biutiful, anyone?), so the public will see that one even if it doesn't win -- which it will --, so don't you worry my dear friend.

It's a whatever for the other categories, even best doc. It's all just so been there done that...

[TimovieMan]

Anyone interested in turning this into a competition? The one that guesses the most awards correctly wins. Just for the honour, of course.

Best I ever got was 21 out of 24 (the year Return of the King won 13 awards). Worst I've ever done is 11 correct guesses (which pissed me off to no extent ).
Usually I get around 16 correct, so that's what I'll aim for...

[Lucien21]

Best Picture:
- The Artist <------ Will win

The Drive should have been nominated and win

Best Director:
- Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist <----- Will and Should win

Best Actor:
- George Clooney - The Descendants <---- Will win.

Ryan Gosling should win for Drive, ides of March and Crazy Stupid Love

Best Actress:
- Viola Davis - The Help <----Should win
- Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady <----- Will Win

Best Supporting Actor:
- Christopher Plummer - Beginners <---- Will and Should win

Bummed that Andy Serkis wasn't nominated for this.

Best Supporting Actress:
- Berenice Bejo - The Artist <--- Will win
- Octavia Spencer - The Help <--- Should win

Best Animated Feature Film:
- Chico & Rita <----Should win
- Rango <--- Will win

Tintin should have won this though.

Best Foreign Film:
- A Separation (Iran) <---Will win and should win

Best Writing - Original Screenplay:
- Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen <---- Will win

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay:
- The Descendants - Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash <--- could win
- Moneyball - Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin <--- Will win

Best Original Song:
- 'Man or Muppet' - The Muppets <---- Should win and will win

Best Original Score:
- The Artist - Ludovic Bource

Best Documentary - Feature:
- Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Best Cinematography:
- The Tree of Life

Best Film Editing:
- The Artist

Best Art Direction:
-The Artist

Best Costume Design:
- Hugo

Best Makeup:
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2


Best Sound Editing:
- Drive

Best Sound Mixing:
- Hugo

Best Visual Effects:
- Rise of the Planet of the Apes

[UPtimist]

Yikes, you people have long lists

Anyways, I'm somewhat bummed that the Finnish(-French) Le Havre by Aki Kaurismäki didn't get nominated for foreign film...

Anyways, in case the BAFTAs that I happened to see are anything to judge by, The Artist is going to be pretty successful.

Of course, I don't know about the Oscars... Really, there are some formulas about what movies win, and (in my opinion) it's not often the best movies that win. It seems to be more about the themes of the film and so forth (I'm not very good with these kinds of analyses ).

[TimovieMan]

Originally Posted by Lucien21

Bummed that Andy Serkis wasn't nominated for this.

They've already ignored him with The Two Towers "because it was CGI and not really him", so I didn't expect to see him get a nomination this time around...
It's a real shame, there's no-one that does a better job in a motion capturing suit. Just like there's no-one better than Doug Jones to act under layers upon layers of make-up.

[TimovieMan]

Originally Posted by UPtimist

Yikes, you people have long lists

Hey, I can't help that the Academy gives out Oscars in 24 categories...

Anyways, I'm somewhat bummed that the Finnish(-French) Le Havre by Aki Kaurismäki didn't get nominated for foreign film...

I haven't seen it yet, but it's high on my list (the name "Kaurismäki" makes sure of that)...

Anyways, in case the BAFTAs that I happened to see are anything to judge by, The Artist is going to be pretty successful.

It has the potential to win big, I agree. I'm just not entirely sure they'll "risk" letting a silent film win. Same goes for a silent acting performance. But on the other hand, the Academy tends to favour overacting, so I've really no idea.
They picked the "safer" film last year, though, so my guess is they'll do that again...

Of course, I don't know about the Oscars... Really, there are some formulas about what movies win, and (in my opinion) it's not often the best movies that win. It seems to be more about the themes of the film and so forth (I'm not very good with these kinds of analyses ).

I agree that it's not always almost never the best movie that wins. Luckily that doesn't matter for this thread as we can always mention the one that we WANT to win as well as mentioning who we think WILL win...

[UPtimist]

Of course

Now, I have no idea about these because perhaps the only film I've seen thislast year (in cinema) is Le Havre, so I've not much to work on So no excessively long lists from me

[kuze]

Should win: Drive (in all categories).

Then again, I have neither seen any of the other movies (besides Midnight in Paris, which was average), nor do I follow the Oscars.

[TiAgUh]

What's with all this unconditional love for Driver?

Gosling is playing another Lars, Hellboy is annoyed and Malcolm's dad is playing someone in a sticky situation. What's new or special? There's nothing clever or subtle, it's just... there. And was the hammer scene supposed to be an homage? T'was so awful it hurt... Oh! and shocker: the main villain has a specific way of killing.

The 500 Days of Summer/Zack Braff's formula still works with a lot of people it seems; a bunch of indie songs + an upcoming cute star + long winded 'voiceless' scenes and bang (!) instant masterpiece.

[kuze]

Originally Posted by TiAgUh

What's with all this unconditional love for Driver?

Gosling is playing another Lars, Hellboy is annoyed and Malcolm's dad is playing someone in a sticky situation. What's new or special? There's nothing clever or subtle, it's just... there. And was the hammer scene supposed to be an homage? T'was so awful it hurt... Oh! and shocker: the main villain has a specific way of killing.

It's simply beautiful cinematography. It's not the most original or intelligent movie plot-wise, it is, however, excellently executed. Each shot looks amazing, each dialogue line is perfectly timed.

[TimovieMan]

Originally Posted by kuze

It's simply beautiful cinematography. It's not the most original or intelligent movie plot-wise, it is, however, excellently executed. Each shot looks amazing, each dialogue line is perfectly timed.

^ This.

[TiAgUh]

Pfff, if you say so. Funny how we went from "should win all categories" to "it's simply beautiful cinematography and perfectly timed dialo--wait wut?

Chick: What do you do?
*beat*
Gosling: I drive, for movies.
*beat*
Chick: Is that dangerous?
*beat*
Gosling: It's only part time.
*beat* ad nauseam

Oh, the brilliance.

[kuze]

Well, then maybe it's not for you. I said that it should win all the categories jokingly (as I thought was clear), I don't really give a shit about who wins which Oscar, but it is the best movie of 2011 for me, hands down.

Also, yes, the dialogue you quoted was very well delivered. The pauses give each line a subtext and gravity, without getting too long or ridiculous.

Then again, I get it, you didn't like the movie. I did. Next topic.

[TiAgUh]

Ugh, why does everyone in here goes into the "me likey u no likey, now shut it" argument? The movie received tons of awards and I'm asking why. It's not about preferences but how come it got such awards as for best actor\supporting actor, best screenplay, best director, etc.

You've said it yourself: it doesn't reinvent the wheel nor does it excels in any way = it's just good at what it does; heeeence my initial question.

And yes, I actually thought you meant that it should win every darn award cause hyperboles aren't known outside germany, derp.

[kuze]

Originally Posted by TiAgUh

Ugh, why does everyone in here goes into the "me likey u no likey, now shut it" argument? The movie received tons of awards and I'm asking why. It's not about preferences but how come it got such awards as for best actor\supporting actor, best screenplay, best director, etc.

You've said it yourself: it doesn't reinvent the wheel nor does it excels in any way = it's just good at what it does; heeeence my initial question.

And yes, I actually thought you meant that it should win every darn award cause hyperboles aren't known outside germany, derp.

Oh, no, I didn't mean you should shut up, it's just that for some movies it really is a matter of opinion and preference. I, for example, can't stand Tarantino movies, but I see why a lot of people like him. I don't feel like I can make you enjoy Drive, but I believe I made some points already in favor if its style.

Drive indeed doesn't "reinvent the wheel" (not sure how that would have been a good thing), but it does very much excel at being an effective, over-stylized and yet tasteful and very ... introverted film. The director really made an effort to make every scene stand out by being overly reserved (the car crash scene) or insanely over-the-top (the skull-crashing scene) using strong colors, long shots and very defined characters. I appreciate that. I realize that for some it might be boring, or too kitschy, and I'm actually surprised it won so many awards already.

EDIT: Also, I'm not sure how you assume that "simply beautiful cinematography" is something ordinary. It's not. Also, congrats on being familiar with hyperboles.

[TimovieMan]

Originally Posted by TiAgUh

Ugh, why does everyone in here goes into the "me likey u no likey, now shut it" argument? The movie received tons of awards and I'm asking why. It's not about preferences but how come it got such awards as for best actor\supporting actor, best screenplay, best director, etc.

You've said it yourself: it doesn't reinvent the wheel nor does it excels in any way = it's just good at what it does; heeeence my initial question.

Well, "me likey u no likey, now shut it" can be appropriate if both sides are so far apart that there's little middle ground. "De gustibus non est disputandum" and the likes...

Since the film won so many awards, it's safe to assume a lot of people saw something in it. I did. A lot of people didn't, though. When the credits rolled a couple of guys in the theater were disappointed that there was so little action in Drive, for instance.
I wasn't quite expecting Drive to invoke such love-it-or-hate-it attitude, though. I get that with The Tree of Life, but I wasn't expecting to see it here.

Personally, I thought it was one of the better movies of last year, too. And I really liked director Nicolas Winding Refn's style. While you seem to hate the slow beat throughout the film, I loved it. It changed the pace to something quite unusual, and very intense.
And 'intense' is also the correct word to describe Gosling's performance here. There's always visibly a lot going on on the inside, it just doesn't get spoken out loud. Makes for a very intriguing character.
Add a deliciously evil Albert Brooks and some stunning (and again slightly offbeat) cinematography to it, and Drive really is a great movie.
While I agree that the basic plot is thin, it doesn't hinder the film in any way. Heck, Drive does everything so right that it elevates a thin plot into something compelling...


Oh, and hyperboles rule!
But they're often a fast way to get into a heated argument on the internet...

[TiAgUh]

Originally Posted by kuze

Drive indeed doesn't "reinvent the wheel"

Oh God, that sounded like the worst pun ever.

But now that you mention it, I've found the absurd violence and woodenness of it all so awkwardly put together that it felt like I was watching a montage of two completely different movies (I know asymmetry was sorta the point, but again, both sat so uncomfortably with one another it hurt).

Originally Posted by kuze

EDIT: Also, I'm not sure how you assume that "simply beautiful cinematography" is something ordinary. It's not. Also, congrats on being familiar with hyperboles.

. Weird, I don't recall saying anything along those lines, but, yes, I also disagree with both of yas on it featuring that.

Actually, this sounds like The Fall discussion all over again; you're both seeing stuff that isn't there. But I'm giving up here, let us 3 just join together and give one great last FU to the substanceless homages that are Tarantino's movies. Aaaaaand done.

[kuze]

I don't remember discussing The Fall (also don't remember liking it too much).

Just out of curiosity, was there a movie you did like in 2011, TiAgUh?