Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackal
As for L.A. Noire, I don't think it will have any noticeable impact on the genre. It's already selling well, so by no means is it a failure. But like Heavy Rain, it's doing so for two main reasons: 1) production values that only a staggering budget allows, and 2) the fact that they're different. Because AAA story-driven adventures are so rare, they're embraced as refreshing changes of pace. If they do have any influence, it's in inspiring cheaper clones that fail in both categories. That's not to say that all games that follow will be poor ones, but it does mean they will quickly slide back into the niche markets such games were always popular in.
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While I think it's possible your analysis can turn out to be right, I also think there's a larger breeding ground for optimism this time. And by "this time" I mean that the previous attempts to revive the genre into the mainstream sort of failed.
* Not since the Golden Age of adventure games has there been more focus on interactive storytelling.
* Games that offer "adventure-like" experiences are more common than 5-10 years ago.
* It's the first time in 10+ years adventure-ish games have had this much attention from both the publishers, the industry in general, and the customers. L.A. Noire and Heavy Rain have sold just as many copies as other big AAA games, so Rockstar and Sony are bound to continue in the same path. I would be very surprised if we don't see a L.A. Noire 2 and a new game based on the Heavy Rain concept (probably not a sequel, David Cage doesn't want that, but a game based on the same mechanics and semi-free storytelling). And in this business sequels are very important market indicators - if we get sequels/similar concepts from Rockstar and Sony, I think it will show other big budget studios, that AAA adventure-like games are worth the effort.
All that said, there's always the possibility, like you mentioned, that a large portion of the sales from Heavy Rain and L.A. Noire is tied to peoples curiosity. So it could be that future adventure-ish games from Rockstar/Sony won't sell quite as well, because some of the customers bought the previous games out of curiosity.
EDIT: Adjusted the last sentence in the third bullet point.
