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Old 05-28-2009, 08:50 AM   #1
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Default Piracy on PCs and consoles

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadsoul View Post
Your PC market is full of pirates and cheaptards.
You torrent and whatnot. You people don't deserve good products. Do you even know the piracy rate its above damn 90%.
Do you have a source for that figure?
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Old 05-28-2009, 08:55 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadsoul View Post
Your PC market is full of pirates and cheaptards.
You torrent and whatnot. You people don't deserve good products. Do you even know the piracy rate its above damn 90%.
I'd like a link as well for that so called percentage because I honestly don't believe that. Piracy is huge problem no question. It's the main reason many companies have stopped making games for PC. The only exception are huge budget games that have done well in the past and online games.
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Old 05-28-2009, 08:56 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stepurhan View Post
Do you have a source for that figure?
http://www.gamecritics.com/videogame...aming-industry

http://www.tweakguides.com/Piracy_4.html

90% is the number for world of goo afaik but it's not reduced too much for other games.
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Old 05-28-2009, 09:18 AM   #4
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Your first link refers to the 90% only once as an anecdotal figure. (Where are his numbers for Doom 2 coming from?)

Your second link actually includes a graph that shows significantly lower figures, especially for the USA. There is mention of the claim of 90% piracy for World of Goo but that is again anecdotal evidence from the publisher. Assuming the "unique internet addresses" claim is accurate though, does this take into account people who have a dynamic IP address (i.e. one that changes and would thus present the same computer as a diferent address) That could make a huge difference to the figures.

Also both seem to mention that consoles are not free from piracy so the argument appears to fall down as a whole anyway.
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Old 05-28-2009, 09:40 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stepurhan View Post
Your first link refers to the 90% only once as an anecdotal figure. (Where are his numbers for Doom 2 coming from?)

Your second link actually includes a graph that shows significantly lower figures, especially for the USA. There is mention of the claim of 90% piracy for World of Goo but that is again anecdotal evidence from the publisher. Assuming the "unique internet addresses" claim is accurate though, does this take into account people who have a dynamic IP address (i.e. one that changes and would thus present the same computer as a diferent address) That could make a huge difference to the figures.
I find it insignificant that locally @ USA piracy is lower, the world figures are still high. The funniest link (not a gaming one) is http://www.newlaunches.com/archives/...d_in_china.php

Also these figures are torrent only, not other p2p, not rapidshare, the actual piracy is larger than just torrent piracy.

Also see http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6449421.stm, "In Eastern Europe, Asia and South America the losses are estimated to be 90% plus"

regarding dynamic ip argument I can use a proxy argument and say it underestimates the number and claim the number is greater, does it make any real difference really? 90% could be 93% it could be 87%

Quote:
Also both seem to mention that consoles are not free from piracy so the argument appears to fall down as a whole anyway.
2nd link shows console piracy is at ~10% of PC piracy...

also to quote "Fallout 3 has almost ten times as many PC downloads as it does console downloads, supported by its general sales ratios". Consoles have allot less piracy and that's why developers have focused there. I fail to see how 90% LESS piracy makes the argument fall down, please explain.
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Old 05-28-2009, 09:58 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imisssunwell View Post
I find it insignificant that locally @ USA piracy is lower, the world figures are still high. The funniest link (not a gaming one) is http://www.newlaunches.com/archives/...d_in_china.php
Still high, maybe. 90%. Not by that graph.

As for new link. Doesn't quote percentages, specific piece of software, specific region, anecdotal (though I presume you have some reason for considering this site a trustworthy source. I've never heard of it and the story doesn't link to a microsoft site showing the figures which would give the story veracity.)
Quote:
Also see http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6449421.stm, "In Eastern Europe, Asia and South America the losses are estimated to be 90% plus"
Estimated. As in, figure we've just made up for the news story. There may well be a solid basis for the figure but the story doesn't present it. Also, if 90% is for a specific region where piracy is prevalent then the percentage has to be lower.
Quote:
regarding dynamic ip argument I can use a proxy argument and say it underestimates the number and claim the number is greater, does it make any real difference really? 90% could be 93% it could be 87%
Maybe your proxy argument is valid as well. I don't have statistics on the prevalence of dynamic IP addresses or proxies. My point is, without this information the figure is unreliable. You're saying that the variation is only going to be about 3% either way but without data on what could throw the figure out that's just an amount you've pulled out of thin air.

Quote:
2nd link shows console piracy is at ~10% of PC piracy...
So still pretty high and companies going to console only is going to make it a growing market because pirates will have to switch to pirating console games if that's all there is.

Devices exist that allow you to pirate console games (I was offered an item that would allow me to do just that for a well-known hand-held. I wasn't interested) Even if piracy on PC is currently higher than console (even if I'll argue the precise figure not requiring extra hardware to accomplish makes it seem likely) going console only is only going to slightly slow down pirates, not stop them.
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Old 05-28-2009, 10:33 AM   #7
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The DS is probably the most pirated format out there at the moment. Small size of files and an R4 cart requires no opening of the console or soldering etc.

On the opposite end the PS3 is the least pirated mainly due to the lack or price of Blu-ray burners and the size of the game files (50GB).

P.S there is an annual study on piracy rates.

http://global.bsa.org/globalpiracy2008/index.html

http://global.bsa.org/globalpiracy20...studybrief.pdf

Piracy rates in some countries are 90% and above, but in Europe and America it's about 20-30%
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Old 05-28-2009, 10:43 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stepurhan View Post
Doesn't quote percentages, specific piece of software, specific region, anecdotal (though I presume you have some reason for considering this site a trustworthy source. I've never heard of it and the story doesn't link to a microsoft site showing the figures which would give the story veracity.)
see:

http://slashdot.org/articles/07/04/18/1512216.shtml

Also from:
http://news.softpedia.com/news/Only-...na-52273.shtml

Quote:
according to a report from Gearfuse citing the Windows Vista chief distributor in Beijing, the 244 copies of Windows Vista represent all the operating system's sales country wide. Apparently, the Beijing distributor controls over 90% of the national volume of Windows Vista products in China and in this context it is in the position to most accurately estimate the market performances of the operating system.
Quote:
Estimated. As in, figure we've just made up for the news story. There may well be a solid basis for the figure but the story doesn't present it. Also, if 90% is for a specific region where piracy is prevalent then the percentage has to be lower.
Maybe your proxy argument is valid as well. I don't have statistics on the prevalence of dynamic IP addresses or proxies. My point is, without this information the figure is unreliable. You're saying that the variation is only going to be about 3% either way but without data on what could throw the figure out that's just an amount you've pulled out of thin air.

So still pretty high and companies going to console only is going to make it a growing market because pirates will have to switch to pirating console games if that's all there is.
Well all the figures will be estimations in that sense, the precision you are asking for needs some sort of internet big brother to monitor & register all traffic and then report that to copyright holders. Unless we have that all data is anecdotal?

Also, since it appears you didn't understand it, 3% was not a specific number, it was a number to show that 90% can have fluctuations both downwards and upwards.

We don't know how well pirates can react, so far they can react 90% worse, in the future no-one really knows.

Quote:
Devices exist that allow you to pirate console games (I was offered an item that would allow me to do just that for a well-known hand-held. I wasn't interested) Even if piracy on PC is currently higher than console (even if I'll argue the precise figure not requiring extra hardware to accomplish makes it seem likely) going console only is only going to slightly slow down pirates, not stop them.
but fact is that there piracy seems 90% lower. PC piracy is 10x times console piracy. You say thats slightly slow down, I say its a huge slow down, both are opinions but here the only known fact is that 90% less piracy is good enough for developers to pay more attention to consoles.

Also for handhelds, the job is easier and there is little to lose if you do it but for the xbox you lose DLC, access to online services.
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Old 05-28-2009, 11:32 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imisssunwell View Post
http://www.gamecritics.com/videogame...aming-industry

http://www.tweakguides.com/Piracy_4.html

90% is the number for world of goo afaik but it's not reduced too much for other games.


Thanks for that MORE

http://www.bit-tech.net/news/gaming/...y_is_rampant/1

Bowling, Community Relations Manager at Infinity Ward, Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare is a game which is suffering especially at the hands of game pirates.

"On another PC related note, we pulled some disturbing numbers this past week about the amount of PC players currently playing Multiplayer (which was fantastic). What wasn't fantastic was the percentage of those numbers who were playing on stolen copies of the game on stolen / cracked CD keys of pirated copies (and that was only people playing online)," said Robert.

"[I'm] not sure if I can share the exact numbers or percentage of PC players with you, but I'll check and see; if I can I'll update with them. As the amount of people who pirate PC games is astounding. It blows me away at the amount of people willing to steal games (or anything) simply because it's not physical or it's on the safety of the internet to do."

Call of Duty 4 isn't the only game that has suffered because of pirates this year - both Crysis and Unreal Tournament 3 have had disappointing sales, which publishers chalk up to a mixture of piracy and steep system requirements.

____________


More

http://www.computerandvideogames.com....php?id=204136


A final blow to this whole topic

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=apRPoA_dd_7U


Thing is it doesn't need topic discussion, there is this whole world of pirates out there, who don't even check adventure gamers, which is to say its about changing the enitre nature of gamers/casuals/noobs around the world OR come with new distribution model, which was first DRM(now hated) and then ONLINE distribution like cloud. Even steam doesnt work because all games once downloade dcan be played again by crack. There is crack for even DRMs.



With PSPGO sony is fighting it, and thats why PSP is getting outsdtanding ew games this year, they must have convinced develiopers by showing new model since their UMD stuff was plagued by same piracy issue. They are rumored to announce digital distribution at this E3, with RENTALS.


Majority PC game developers moved to console due to profits, i can't link all those interviews, but can tell you ID soft, johncarmack and UE guy markrein also pointed same issues i.e to move on CRAP PC.
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Old 05-29-2009, 04:43 AM   #10
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The slashdot link only reference for the story is the netlaunch one you originally posted. Hardly supporting evidence.

The second link references Gearfuse. Now Gearfuse actually does allege to have two sources for this story. Unfortunately neither are in English so i can't tell if they are reliable references or not.

Quote:
Well all the figures will be estimations in that sense, the precision you are asking for needs some sort of internet big brother to monitor & register all traffic and then report that to copyright holders. Unless we have that all data is anecdotal?
I'm not looking for precision as such. The point I'm making is the figure of 90% is being bandied around but there doesn't seem to be anything concrete to hang it on. In fact, Lucien's links appear to be presenting a much lower figure.

By "anecdotal" what I mean is unsubstantiated by data. The closest we've got is the World of Goo story. However, he's not supplying detailed figures and I've already pointed out ways in which the number can vary. Even if that figure is accurate you can't extrapolate it to the games market as a whole. You'd need to ask questions like "Is World of Goo particularly easy to pirate?" for example. If it is, then figures are likely to be higher because less technical skill is required. (If anyone can simply copy it on to a CD for a mate then you're going to get more piracy)

Quote:
We don't know how well pirates can react, so far they can react 90% worse, in the future no-one really knows.
So why the hate for PCs?(which is what started this) There is already evidence that console piracy is possible so saying all games should be switched to consoles because of piracy is a non-starter.

Quote:
but fact is that there piracy seems 90% lower. PC piracy is 10x times console piracy. You say thats slightly slow down, I say its a huge slow down, both are opinions but here the only known fact is that 90% less piracy is good enough for developers to pay more attention to consoles.
You said it was -10% (minus 10%). That's not 10 times less. Have I misunderstood you there.

Quote:
Also for handhelds, the job is easier and there is little to lose if you do it but for the xbox you lose DLC, access to online services.
What causes that to happen. I mean in the context of why are you certain this cannot be circumvented?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadsoul View Post
Thanks for that MORE

http://www.bit-tech.net/news/gaming/...y_is_rampant/1

"On another PC related note, we pulled some disturbing numbers this past week about the amount of PC players currently playing Multiplayer (which was fantastic). What wasn't fantastic was the percentage of those numbers who were playing on stolen copies of the game on stolen / cracked CD keys of pirated copies (and that was only people playing online)," said Robert.

"[I'm] not sure if I can share the exact numbers or percentage of PC players with you, but I'll check and see; if I can I'll update with them. As the amount of people who pirate PC games is astounding. It blows me away at the amount of people willing to steal games (or anything) simply because it's not physical or it's on the safety of the internet to do."
Not quoting figures so still not justifying 90% (which was your original claim) I'm not denying piracy happens.
Quote:
Call of Duty 4 isn't the only game that has suffered because of pirates this year - both Crysis and Unreal Tournament 3 have had disappointing sales, which publishers chalk up to a mixture of piracy and steep system requirements.
How much is to piracy? How much is to steep system requirements? If there's more than one variable you can't ascribe a percentage to one of them without more data.

____________


More
A bit like the World of Goo example. He says it's not a figure he's pulling out of thin air but without knowing how he came up with that figure I can't tell if it's reliable. Also one game is still not piracy generally. See World of Goo point above.

Quote:
A final blow to this whole topic

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=apRPoA_dd_7U
If their figure is reliable (the BSA survey backing it up has a professional look but I haven't thoroughly reviewed it. It's also the place Lucien linked to above) then it's a final blow to your 90% claim. They are citing 41%

I don't deny piracy exists, that would be stupid. What I'm saying is no-one is presenting solid evidence of the 90% claim (in fact, I'm getting a variety of surveys not based on a single piece of software that show much lower figure) There is also evidence that consoles suffer piracy as well. It is at best naive to suggest that moving all games from PC will eradicate piracy. If that's where the money is, that's where the pirates will go. They've cracked all the PC systems over the years. What makes you think they won't crack all the console ones as well?
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Old 05-29-2009, 05:31 AM   #11
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PS3 isnt cracked yet, and its quite difficult. There are 4 things to crack actually including seventh processor whose SDK isn't even given to developers.They can only use 6 SPUs.

I have been to pirate countries and played pirates all my life, untill PS3. Had arguments with friends, they always made claims of PS3 piracy, i had bets with them , always winning uptill now. Its always easy to isolate pirates with firm wares. PSP fought it with firmwares to the extent that pirates themselves got bored. A normal causal guy cant give his console again and again to the shop for modification(psp case). Well hardcore teenagers who can crack firmware themselves will do so with the ehlp of online tutorials, but they are few and got bored themselves. DS is full of pirates, with ROMS easily distributed, NINTENDO is trying to figure way out of this by new DSi ting. DS priacy is easy and roms are so small in size that you can put 10 games at once in 1 GB stick.

As far as 360 goes, they are doing it on purpose to sell more consoles in ASIA(and majority asian coutires cant afford 60$ games on whim and fancy), however in NA and Euro if you connect to Live with modded console, you get banned, millions were banned.
So, as long as there is firmware updates and Online check for multiplayer/coop , there is way to avoid it easily.

Thats why i never played online on 360, i have modded 360, all games downloaded by shopkeepers, smuggled from malaysia and china. But for PS3 i pay, since there is no alternative.



You are getting too technical, 90% or not, more than 60% is absolute majority technically, it doesn't matter if its 90%, what matters is ID and Epic, who were PC ho's are now console dogs.
They are accepting it themselves, and developer in the end will go for profits, and console is more profit. All i can do is to quote developers own statements like Infinityward guy, he isn't happy , like others. Its more about whether it has changed attitude or not, IT HAS, so fighting over numbers isn't important(which i have pointed , its not like business stock shares where you will ever get absolutely correct stats, this is as far as you can go, after all i am too getting my stats form net, lol).
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Old 05-29-2009, 07:57 AM   #12
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TLDR: Tbh at this point I find this discussion rather pointless and I don't think I have much to add. We will just go on saying if Goos publisher figures are accurate and discuss if it is harder to pirate consoles, in the mean time PC gamers will have to stick with their console ports, as the developers have chosen their target platform because for them it is clear that "money talks, horse... walks".

more extensively:
------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by stepurhan View Post
The slashdot link only reference for the story is the netlaunch one you originally posted. Hardly supporting evidence.
Well you wanted to see where this link came up from, it came up from slashdot.

Quote:
The second link references Gearfuse. Now Gearfuse actually does allege to have two sources for this story. Unfortunately neither are in English so i can't tell if they are reliable references or not.
Well, it is hardly surprising though that chief distributor in Beijing made this announcement in Chinese, which was then transfered to western sites later.


Quote:
I'm not looking for precision as such. The point I'm making is the figure of 90% is being bandied around but there doesn't seem to be anything concrete to hang it on. In fact, Lucien's links appear to be presenting a much lower figure.
As I said,
Quote:
90% is the number for world of goo afaik but it's not reduced too much for other games
, (hint: read "for world of goo")


Quote:
By "anecdotal" what I mean is unsubstantiated by data. The closest we've got is the World of Goo story. However, he's not supplying detailed figures and I've already pointed out ways in which the number can vary. Even if that figure is accurate you can't extrapolate it to the games market as a whole. You'd need to ask questions like "Is World of Goo particularly easy to pirate?" for example. If it is, then figures are likely to be higher because less technical skill is required. (If anyone can simply copy it on to a CD for a mate then you're going to get more piracy)
Also I don't think it's only a matter of Goos non existent DRM, SPORE had pretty draconian DRM and it is downloaded more than any other full sized game.

Quote:
So why the hate for PCs?(which is what started this) There is already evidence that console piracy is possible so saying all games should be switched to consoles because of piracy is a non-starter.
I hate PCs? lol! please no psychoanalysis over the web, you'll have to come up with something better. I couldn't care less where games are developed, I'll just use the platform developers support most and have the better gaming experience.

Quote:
You said it was -10% (minus 10%). That's not 10 times less. Have I misunderstood you there.
No no no no, read again... I said it is AT 10% of PC piracy (not 10% less). Simple math tutorial:

A is 10% of B => A = 0.1*B or equivalently B= 10*A or
equivalevtly A = 100%B - 90%B. At 10%, or 90% less or B is 10xA. Also in math "~" is used in the context A `approximately at' 10%B => A is close to 10% of B.
I even quoted it in words "Fallout 3 has almost ten times as many PC downloads as it does console downloads"... so again where did you come up with that " (-10%) minus 10%" from? not from my posts...

Quote:
What causes that to happen. I mean in the context of why are you certain this cannot be circumvented?
Because you have to use a modchip it's harder, also you lose all your online services if you use modchips, I didn't say it can't be circumvented, please don't misquote me at your convenience, I said it quite clearly it becomes harder in consoles, not impossible "they can react 90% worse". Technically speaking, they can make it impossible in consoles by embeding the firmware chip within the processor chip and make firmware not upgradable, similarly to the most hardcore paladium proposals, while this would never be feasible for computers which have many uses and I can't see them running only signed code in the near future, it could be done for consoles if they chose to but atm the piracy there is small and they have no reason to resort to such extreme solutions. Again, for the PC they could try putting content online so that the offline client has content missing or maybe the microtransactions idea could work well but at the present moment, fact is PC has 10x console piracy.



Quote:
Not quoting figures so still not justifying 90% (which was your original claim) I'm not denying piracy happens.
How much is to piracy? How much is to steep system requirements? If there's more than one variable you can't ascribe a percentage to one of them without more data.
again, 90% was for world of goo, and said the number is still very high for rest games, re-quoting myself again for clarity "90% is the number for world of goo afaik but it's not reduced too much for other games". You don't want to believe the publisher numbers, that's fine by me.

Quote:
so the 90% in WoG that publisher claims is not a good figure because of dynamic IPs.....
Well all you are saying is that you don't believe the publishers figure is accurate because you believe dynamic IPs may play that significant a role, I'll have to be honest and say I find this dynamic IP argument pulled out of the thin air but again, since there is no big brother registering all traffic & sending that to copyright holders I doubt you will ever see the precision you ask for.

____________



Quote:
If their figure is reliable (the BSA survey backing it up has a professional look but I haven't thoroughly reviewed it. It's also the place Lucien linked to above) then it's a final blow to your 90% claim. They are citing 41%
Lucien's link is for PC piracy as a whole (not targeted to games) . Personally I have no doubt that these figures are accurate (and I don't see how they contradict 90% with Goo and very high rates with rest of games) but I am surprised that you just accept figures for general software piracy but for games piracy figures you find most numbers anecdotal.

Quote:
There is also evidence that consoles suffer piracy as well.
90% less is hardly suffer

Quote:
It is at best naive to suggest that moving all games from PC will eradicate piracy.
Well that is actually what developers are doing, it used to be that the console version was a cheapo pc port, now it is the other way around.

Quote:
If that's where the money is, that's where the pirates will go. They've cracked all the PC systems over the years. What makes you think they won't crack all the console ones as well?
again, it is not technically impossible but it is significantly harder and users that mod their consolers lose online services + custom firmware is not always compatible with all good games. 90% LESS speaks for itself, it is not that consoles cannot be technically cracked, it is just less attractive to do so.

Tbh at this point I find this discussion rather pointless and while it is amusing to read my phychoanalysis over the web, I don't think I have much to add. We will just go on saying if Goos publisher figures are accurate and discuss if it is harder to pirate consoles, in the mean time PC gamers will have to stick with their console ports, as the developers have chosen their target platform because for them it is clear that "money talks, horse... walks".


@nomad: "in NA and Euro if you connect to Live with modded console, you get banned, millions were banned." indeed.

"As far as 360 goes, they are doing it on purpose to sell more consoles in ASIA" haha, very microsoft! reminds me of B. Gates ""Although about 3 million computers get sold every year in China, people don't pay for the software. Someday they will, though," ... "And as long as they're going to steal it, we want them to steal ours. They'll get sort of addicted, and then we'll somehow figure out how to collect sometime in the next decade."

Last edited by imisssunwell; 05-29-2009 at 08:33 AM.
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Old 05-29-2009, 10:20 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by imisssunwell View Post
Well you wanted to see where this link came up from, it came up from slashdot.
Actually I was more interested to see where their informaton came from, not how you found the link. Slashdot quoting them MIGHT be considered to make them a more reliable source but even mainstream news outlets have used sources later found to be unreliable in the past.
Quote:
As I said, , (hint: read "for world of goo")
Yes but your full sentence was (my emboldening)
Quote:
Originally Posted by imisssunwell View Post
90% is the number for world of goo afaik but it's not reduced too much for other games.
so you are actually trying to apply it to the whole games market. I'm still not sure what you're basing that extrapolation on.
Quote:
I hate PCs? lol! please no psychoanalysis over the web, you'll have to come up with something better.
Actually that one was more aimed at nomadsoul's original comment (where he said some quite rude things about PC owners). You did come out in support of his 90% claim but only quoting references so I accept that you've not expressed any PC hate yourself.
Quote:
No no no no, read again... I said it is AT 10% of PC piracy (not 10% less).
The post I was referring to was
Quote:
Originally Posted by imisssunwell View Post
2nd link shows console piracy is at ~10% of PC piracy...
I see now that what I read as a minus sign is actually a tilde so this is a case of me misreading your post. Sorry for that.
Quote:
Because you have to use a modchip it's harder, also you lose all your online services if you use modchips, I didn't say it can't be circumvented, please don't misquote me at your convenience,
I wasn't trying to misquote you. You clearly saw loss of online services as a downside of piracy on this console. You presumably also believe there is no way of avoiding this loss of online services by piracy. It is this second point I was aiming to address as your argument on this particular console seems to be based on the loss of online content being unavoidable. (i.e You seemed to be implying it couldn't be circumvented even if you didn't state it outright) I may have been overinterpreting your words there so apologies if that isn't what you meant. but it definitely read like that.

I must admit that I'd be curious as to why modchips are required for this process but that's probably a bit of a technical point to get into.
Quote:
Well all you are saying is that you don't believe the publishers figure is accurate because you believe dynamic IPs may play that significant a role,
It's not that I don't believe the figures as such. It's that I don't have enough information to know if they are reliable or not, so scepticism is a sensible stance. I dd pull the dynamic IP out of thin air as an example of why they may not be reliable. If I could put that to the World of Goo publisher and he was able to tell me how they eliminated dynamic IPs from their calculations then I'd be more confident the figures are accurate (for World of Goo at least)
Quote:
Lucien's link is for PC piracy as a whole (not targeted to games) . Personally I have no doubt that these figures are accurate (and I don't see how they contradict 90% with Goo and very high rates with rest of games) but I am surprised that you just accept figures for general software piracy but for games piracy figures you find most numbers anecdotal.
Granted that this doesn't apply to games specifically (though games are included in the calculations). Also, whilst I can't know for sure that game piracy is higher than general piracy, I can see the argument for why it would be. That still doesn’t give us a figure for games piracy of course.

Why am I more willing to accept this information? Because it is a study with a stated methodology so I can see exactly how they've come to the figures they are using. The methodology isn't perfect (as we've already said, by it's very nature, piracy is unmeasurable) but it's going to be more accurate than using one game as the basis for the whole industry or "estimates" without any specific data.

One final point I need to make as a mod (outside our discussion) Your last post included the following as a quote.
Quote:
so the 90% in WoG that publisher claims is not a good figure because of dynamic IPs.....
I've searched the thread and I can't find this anywhere. It also slightly misrepresents what I've said. As a general point, please only use quotes for actual parts of other posts. By all means include interpretations (such as this one) in your response but don't present those interpretations as direct quotes.
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Old 05-30-2009, 03:33 AM   #14
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HAHAHA rude things, man don't take it personally, it wasn't me , it was developers themselves who are starting to hate PC. I have quoted one of them, criticizing it, unless you take it as PRAISE.

Besides that davidcage was even more harsh on PCs, why he didn;t want to make HR on PC. He went all sort of troubles he had , installing latest drivers and stupid compatibility problems and more. I had same issues with PC, well evryone had.

Glad i am not alone.
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Old 05-30-2009, 05:03 AM   #15
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Last post for me, as I don't think there is much to add.

It's ok for the "~" & for circumventing console piracy misinterpretation, also technical details for banning when you use custom firmware are not too important imho, it's not hard to find indeed but the important part of the story is they seem quite strict and impose bans to users who do it.

regarding
Quote:
so the 90% in WoG that publisher claims is not a good figure because of dynamic IPs.....
No quotes should had been used there indeed, my bad, in my defense huge block of text can help the creation of errata during their processing.
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Old 05-30-2009, 07:29 AM   #16
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It seems this whole argument started because two people refuse to let go of these phantom numbers they're being fed by dubious developers trying to justify sales slump to their backers and the internet press who have jumped on this stuff as a distraction from more news reports about the failing economy. The 90% number isn't substantiated by any hard data, but everyone's looking for a straw man here, so why not blame Pirate Bay. It's working for the MPAA, like blaming Napster gave the RIAA something to blame for their failing sales.

Personally, I blame marketing and lazy game development logic that dictates more of the same for less at a higher price. Anyone downloading games these days is simply eliminating the cost of consumer regret. But I still think that 90% is seriously inflated. The number Lucien quoted sound far more reasonable (and is supported by much more rigourous fact-finding), while still making it clear that a considerable problem exists in the software industry.

Now, personally, I've spent a fair bit of money over the years on some pretty pricey games, sometimes more than one copy (my Mom likes Adventure games too). But I've read numerous game reviews that I still had to take with a grain of salt and investigate myself (even the really good ones here at AG), because my tastes don't necessarily jibe with a number of reviewers out there (including ones whom I occasionally agree with). If demos are available, I have to try them, even if they're reputedly buggy or incomplete. But demos are not a certainty, and may even be seen as a reason for profit loss (presumably, given the virtual disappearance of gaming demos, either demos drive away more sales than they make, or running servers for modern demo DLing isn't making its money back in sales, but I have no numbers to support this).

Now, I don't know how it is in Asia or wherever else software piracy is apparently running rampant, but I'm pretty sure that most folks around here want to own fully-functioning, legitimate (hassle-free, easy-to-install) copies of most if not all of their computer software (I suspect many experienced PC owners have a natural distrust of Microsoft, which may lead to some rampant OS piracy justifications, but again, no hard numbers) copies of any software they depend on for doing more than updating their Facebook status report (and for that we have Firefox or Google Chrome for free).

However, I've been thinking that the piracy hysteria we've been seeing in the press of late has been a smokescreen for a lot of poor returns on products that simply didn't excite consumer confidence. After the hype wears off, a lot of these products just don't make people want to go out and buy, or for those indulging in piracy, aren't inspiring their confidence enough to want to throw down their hard-earned pesos without 'demoing' the software beforehand.

So yeah, I take umbrage at the notion that PC owners are responsible for 90% of the purported piracy issues. I think console gamers are living in a dream world if they think they won't be the next target. I've read all of this stuff about the measures PS3 is taking to ensure they can't be cracked, but frankly, it's like any other rat race; soon there will be faster rats. I'm quite sure it's much harder than burning an iso to a disc. That said, I think we're missing the bigger picture here, and that's that people with not a lot of money may settle for less, but they certainly won't keep buying stuff that they're almost certain is going to be crap, unless they make sure for themselves. That's the real reason behind most piracy, I'm sure.

Okay, gotta go uninstall my floppy drive. Good luck fighting the fight.
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Old 05-30-2009, 11:46 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imisssunwell View Post
also technical details for banning when you use custom firmware are not too important imho, it's not hard to find indeed but the important part of the story is they seem quite strict and impose bans to users who do it.
I'm sure they are very strict about imposing bans. The reason I was curious abuot the need for modchips is because, as far as I can see, Xbox (and PS3 for that matter) games come on discs. I'm sure pirating would involve a bit more than just copying the contents of a legitimate disc on to another one. However, once you've managed to create a copy that mimics the original disc, why would firmware modifications be necessary? As I said, probably a heavily technical point but I would be interested in finding out if anyone knows the reason or can point me in the right direction to find out for myself.
Quote:
No quotes should had been used there indeed, my bad, in my defense huge block of text can help the creation of errata during their processing.
I know what you mean. No harm done though (the modified version wasn't a gross misrepresentation anyway, more of a subtle distinction)
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Old 05-31-2009, 10:05 AM   #18
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@stepurhan, I will give a TLDR explanation, no rat race arguments, if you want more details feel free to PM me as I do not wish to keep posting on this topic.

For one there are two types (in terms of security) of physical media available, ones with DRM (e.g. blue ray) and ones without DRM (e.g. region lock aside DVD). DRMless physical media can in principle be cloned but to keep it simpler and easier, I will assume non inherent DRM on the medium and pick DVDs, and will focus on Starforce, as Starforce protected DVDs (not CDs!) cannot be decently cloned even today and the protection scheme is 5 years old.

Starforce uses techniques (e.g. by introducing damaged clusters) that make copying non-feasible. It can get bloody expensive to reverse such a scheme and for some schemes it is practically impossible.The trick for pirated copies will have to work without assuming 100% perfect clones.

In the PC how do reversers bypass protection schemes where a 100% perfect copy is impossible? they use no-CD patches and essentially remove DRM from the game.

Now the big difference between consoles and PCs, is that PCs run any code, while consoles run only signed code(*). In the PC world you can run a noCd exe but in the console world you can only run code which is signed by e.g. MicroSoft for 360, Sony for PS3 and Apple for iPhone. The part of the code which checks for signed code is in the console (atm flash-able) firmware.

The only way to make a console run unsigned code (an imperfect copy ends up in this category) is to flash the firmware. This can be made impossible if you use a non-flashable ROM (so that it cannot be upgraded) whose chip is embedded into the processor chip (so that it cannot be removed from the motherboard & replaced by another flash-able clone) and is what hardcore Palladium proposals suggested. Atm firmware flashing is possible through the use of a mod-chip (**), (***) but mod-chips once flashed can be detected and users who do this get a ban from online services and also sometimes aren't able to run newer games.


(*) Code signing: one can sign any piece of data using asymmetric cryptography techniques (e.g. RSA) which cannot be broken (assuming no implementation specific errata) because they depend on problems which cannot be solved with *classical* algorithms that scale well (polynomial). E.g. you can even sign your emails and then receivers will know 100% that it was you who sent it.

(**) there is a second technique to change the firmware as well but can since it is not common I won't put a wall of text, tldr of it is use an exploit of a signed piece of code (this can also be blocked).

(***) in handhelds changing firmware can be done without modchips, they were less strict on handhelds so far.
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