Adventure Forums - View Single Post - New Jane Jensen game and Kickstarter campaign
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Old 04-26-2012, 08:11 PM   #689
Kicktraq
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Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zane View Post
kicktraq is slow and incredibly simple, it hasnt taken all of sundays results yet into account (which was a slight incline from saturday)
Anyway, as iv been saying all along, 300k is going to be a fight. And the heart of the battle is about to begin

EDIT: Also, i'd like to supply this simple formula for anyone enamoured with kicktraq, so you dont have to give them traffic and can see their number yourself

Take the total $, divide it by the number of days the project has been going on. Multiply that by the number of days left. And then add that to the current $ total. There, now you have your own highly innacurate number without kicktraq
A tad harsh calling it "highly inaccurate". The criticism feels a little unfair. The trend, as a trend, is absolutely accurate. However, I explain in detail why trends are not projections, and I never claim the trend to be a projection, but highly inaccurate it is not. I could just call it a projection and be done with it, but I explain in complete detail why this isn't the case and post it on every single project page under the trend block: http://blog.kicktraq.com/why-you-sho...grain-of-salt/

I've only been online for less than a month, and I've spent a lot of it trying to give people what the want (Firefox/Chrome add-ons, additional metrics on the project pages, category listings, fast searching and browsing, RSS) as well as working through building weighted models based on project data I've been able to gather in the last few weeks. Then, not just taking them as a blanket set of data but weighting them with various types of gamma and weibull distributions specific to categories and pledge modeling to produce a little more reasonable projections vs just relying on trending information. Take that and span it across almost a thousand active projects, and you see what I've been doing with my time for the last few weeks.

This isn't stuff you can just whip up in an afternoon, let alone hope it will be accurate considering you're trying to project a countless array of unknowns (marketing, news exposure, kickstarter highlighting, etc). But, I'm doing the best I can, and I ask nothing in return. Well, maybe asking to not call it "highly inaccurate", but I digress.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zane View Post
Well few things. First if those are kicktraqs numbers theyr actualy wrong (if you add up all their backers by date it doesnt even add up anywhere close to the actual total. Their average backer per day is right because thats just one simple divison)
That's because it's not one of our "Day-1" projects so we don't show the first day because it throws the whole daily chart off and we didn't want to track partial days. Again, they're not "wrong", they're as accurate as we can manage them to be when we don't have project data from the very first day.

Regardless, here's the Jane Jensen project using the new modeling data to give you an example:


... and here's the convergence chart showing the trend deviation as the project progresses:


If you'd like, you can keep track using the new experimental charts by visiting the project page and clicking the π symbol at the bottom.

Enjoy, and I welcome any and all criticism (truly)!

Last edited by Kicktraq; 04-26-2012 at 08:21 PM.
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