Ok, in order to predict whether she will make it,
kicktraq is useful.
The trending amount of $540 k is not realistic, i would disregard that (it's a trend and not a prediction anyway).
However, if you look at the pledges by day, don't look at the average of $12k (the influence on the average from the early bump is too large), but at the minimum (excluding today, as that is still going on). The minimum (pretty constant over the last 5 days) is approximately $5k. Let's say if the minimum will decrease with 25% over time (guesstimate), you will still have approx at minimum $3.75k per day. If you multiply that with the number of days left (30), you will still get $125k in addition to the $ 200 k raised already. This would mean that, if you use the minimum pledge per day as "predictive", she will raise $325k, and let's add an uncertainty of 10%, it will be $325 ± 32 k.
Therefore, it is not unlikely she will make it ;-)
